Two Years Later: How COVID-19 Has Shaped the Teacher Workforce

The unprecedented challenges of teaching during COVID-19 prompted fears of a mass exodus from the profession. We examine the extent to which these fears were realized using administrative records of Massachusetts teachers between 2015–2016 and 2021–2022. Relative to prepandemic levels, average turnover rates were similar going into the fall of 2020 but increased by 17% (from 15.0% to 17.5%) going into the fall of 2021. The fall 2021 increases were particularly high among newly hired teachers (31% increase) but were lower among Black and Hispanic/Latinx teachers (5% increases among both groups). Gaps in turnover rates between schools serving higher and lower concentrations of economically disadvantaged students narrowed during the first 18 months of the pandemic. The same holds true for gaps in turnover between schools serving higher and lower shares of Black and Hispanic/Latinx students. Together, these findings highlight important differences in teachers' responses to the pandemic across subgroups and the need to improve early-career retention to ensure long-term stability within the teacher workforce.

Two Years Later: How COVID-19 Has Shaped the Teacher Workforce

The unprecedented challenges of teaching during COVID-19 prompted fears of a mass exodus from the profession. We examine the extent to which these fears were realized using administrative records of Massachusetts teachers between 2015–2016 and 2021–2022. Relative to prepandemic levels, average turnover rates were similar going into the fall of 2020 but increased by 17% (from 15.0% to 17.5%) going into the fall of 2021. The fall 2021 increases were particularly high among newly hired teachers (31% increase) but were lower among Black and Hispanic/Latinx teachers (5% increases among both groups). Gaps in turnover rates between schools serving higher and lower concentrations of economically disadvantaged students narrowed during the first 18 months of the pandemic. The same holds true for gaps in turnover between schools serving higher and lower shares of Black and Hispanic/Latinx students. Together, these findings highlight important differences in teachers' responses to the pandemic across subgroups and the need to improve early-career retention to ensure long-term stability within the teacher workforce.

The Covid-19 Pandemic Is a Lousy Natural Experiment for Studying the Effects of Online Learning

Pathways through Which Covid May Affect Student Outcomes (Figure 1) Illustration Search Intensity for Online Learning and Economic Indicators (Figure 2) The Covid-19 pandemic that prompted a nationwide shutdown of schools and a shift to online instruction in spring 2020 also prompted a wave of articles calling this instructional change a “natural experiment” that could be used to study the effects of online education. Students shifted to remote learning as their parents lost jobs, as their family members suffered Covid’s health effects, and as they lost the ability to leave the house and see friends, among other significant changes to their lives. [...]pandemic-induced policy changes were implemented in a way that is unlikely to resemble a more carefully planned implementation of the same policy in a typical year. The Overall Impacts of Covid-19 on Students Although it is nearly impossible to disentangle the effect of any specific policy, the overall effect of the pandemic—including economic, health, social, and educational changes—is something we can attempt to assess. [...]as the pandemic continues to disrupt daily life more than a year after schools first closed, it is increasingly important to understand the impact of the pandemic itself.

The Pandemic’s effect on demand for public schools, homeschooling, and private schools

The Covid-19 pandemic drastically disrupted the functioning of U.S. public schools, potentially changing the relative appeal of alternatives such as homeschooling and private schools. We study changes in families’ choices of school sector using longitudinal student-level administrative data from Michigan and nationally representative data from the Census Household Pulse Survey. Public school enrollment declined noticeably in fall 2020, with 3 percent of Michigan students and 10 percent of kindergartners using other options. Most of this came from homeschooling rates jumping substantially among families with children in elementary school. Consistent with heterogeneous parental preferences for instructional mode, homeschooling increased more where schools provided in-person instruction while private schooling increased more where instruction was remote. Kindergarten declines were highest among low income and Black families while declines in other grades were highest among higher income and White families, highlighting important heterogeneity by students’ existing attachment to public schools. Our results shed light on how families make schooling decisions and imply potential longer-run disruptions to public schools in the form of decreased enrollment and changed composition of the student body.

The Pandemic’s Effect on Demand for Public Schools, Homeschooling, and Private Schools

The Covid-19 pandemic drastically disrupted the functioning of U.S. public schools, potentially changing the relative appeal of alternatives such as homeschooling and private schools. Using longitudinal student-level administrative data from Michigan and nationally representative data from the Census Household Pulse Survey, we show how the pandemic affected families’ choices of school sector. We document four central facts. First, public school enrollment declined noticeably in fall 2020, with about 3 percent of Michigan students and 10 percent of kindergartners using other options. Second, most of this was driven by homeschooling rates jumping substantially, driven largely by families with children in elementary school. Third, homeschooling increased more where schools provided in-person instruction while private schooling increased more where instruction was remote, suggesting heterogeneity in parental concerns about children’s physical health and instructional quality. Fourth, kindergarten declines were highest among low income and Black families while declines in other grades were highest among higher income and White families, highlighting important heterogeneity by students’ existing attachment to public schools. Our results shed light on how families make schooling decisions and imply potential longer-run disruptions to public schools in the form of decreased enrollment and funding, changed composition of the student body, and increased size of the next kindergarten cohort.

Inequality in Household Adaptation to Schooling Shocks: Covid-Induced Online Learning Engagement in Real Time

We use high frequency internet search data to study in real time how US households sought out online learning resources as schools closed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. By April 2020, nationwide search intensity for both school- and parent-centered online learning resources had roughly doubled relative to pre-Covid levels. Areas of the country with higher income, better internet access and fewer rural schools saw substantially larger increases in search intensity. The pandemic will likely widen achievement gaps along these dimensions given schools’ and parents’ differing engagement with online resources to compensate for lost school-based learning time. Accounting for such differences and promoting more equitable access to online learning could improve the effectiveness of education policy responses to the pandemic. The public availability of internet search data allows our analyses to be updated when schools reopen and to be replicated in other countries.

Inequality in household adaptation to schooling shocks: Covid-induced online learning engagement in real time.

We use high frequency internet search data to study in real time how US households sought out online learning resources as schools closed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. By April 2020, nationwide search intensity for both school- and parent-centered online learning resources had roughly doubled relative to pre-Covid levels. Areas of the country with higher income, better internet access and fewer rural schools saw substantially larger increases in search intensity. The pandemic will likely widen achievement gaps along these dimensions given schools' and parents' differing engagement with online resources to compensate for lost school-based learning time. Accounting for such differences and promoting more equitable access to online learning could improve the effectiveness of education policy responses to the pandemic. The public availability of internet search data allows our analyses to be updated when schools reopen and to be replicated in other countries.